Comment by gattr

4 years ago

I remember this one from a youth mathematics book. 10⁻⁴ chance of one bomb, and 10⁻⁸ of two (assuming the other one is an independent event — which it would be, as you're certainly not in collusion with any actual bomber).

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gattr

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meindnoch  4 years ago

Conditional probability doesn’t work like that.

If you always have a bomb with you, then the probability of you sitting on a plane with a bomb is 1, and thus the probability of you sitting on a plane with another bomb is again 10^-4.

  • 542458  4 years ago

    Yes, the post you’re replying to was recounting a joke :)

    • gattr  4 years ago

      Indeed. Hmm, but what if I roll a D20 before each flight and take a bomb only if I get a "1"? Do I decrease the average two-bombs probability to 5·10⁻⁶?

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