Comment by sershe
3 months ago
Repeating the same things doesn't make them true. Do tell me what data I should peruse on welfare spending or living standards.
Housing, again is easy to disprove for the relevant timeframe - price to income ratios were not much higher than in the past before covid (after trump 1 and way after Reagan or Clinton). The size of the houses was steadily increasing too, indicating increased demand for bigger houses due to increased incomes and living standards. But the vibes among recent college grads wanting a house in SF specifically is certainly pretty gloomy.
> Housing, again is easy to disprove for the relevant timeframe - price to income ratios were not much higher
Yet another unsubstantiated claim that is wrong:
https://www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/individual/insights/what-...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=n9xI
https://www.igedd.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/jpg/prix...
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/australia/house-price-index-seas...
The US are kind of an outlier because price recessed between the financial crisis and Covid, but it has then caught up with the broader western trend. And keep in mind that the “price to average income” ratio doesn't tell you anything about the situation of the lowest incomes, which have declined relatively to the mean.
> The size of the houses was steadily increasing too
Like with mobile phones or cars, a house twice as good and twice as expensive is still twice as expensive.
> indicating increased demand for bigger houses due to increased incomes and living standards
Unsubstantiated claim, and also wrongly assuming homogeneous growth of the house size (if 10% of your housing supply double in size, while the other stay still, the average size increase by more than 10% but this tells you nothing about the housing stock as a whole).
> But the vibes among recent college grads wanting a house in SF specifically is certainly pretty gloomy.
Not just SF, and not just recent college grads, that's the thing. Even social classes that used to be preserved from the housing cost increase are now affected as well.
Here's the long term trend, of course https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-inco...
Ratio was very similar in 1965 and 1995, for example and not much higher than previously after the housing bubble. So, not much to do with deregulation and welfare state in the 80ies or whatever.
Then this has median house size over time https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/programs-surveys/a...
Median house is not affected by average issues you indicate, and it increases steadily over time including when price to income is falling or staying low.
Also, since housing costs for most people are substantially affected by interest rates, the pre covid period would look even better.
Where is the data for the poorest, and what does the poorest mean, 1%, 10%, 0.1%?
Of course, housing prices, especially local, are mostly due to underbuilding, and underbuilding is to a large extent caused by zoning, and environmental/etc review. Nothing to do with "current system", unless by current system you mean too much government and too much democratic input over other people's property :)
Oh btw here's hard to use long term doc.https://www.bls.gov/opub/100-years-of-u-s-consumer-spending....
Spending on housing was 29.5% in 1960, 30.8% in 1973, 32.8% in 2001, as far as it goes.
It's funny how you always escape data by cherry picking other data instead of addressing the data you loudly reclaimed.
> and not much higher than previously after the housing bubble
Except that you cannot discount the “bubbles” when they represent a significant fraction of the recent period. And as mentioned before, the relative housing cost decline during the 2010s is a US peculiarity that didn't happen elsewhere in the West.
> Median house is not affected by average issues you indicate, and it increases steadily over time including when price to income is falling or staying low.
That's a nice counterpoint to your original argument, thank you.
> Of course, housing prices, especially local, are mostly due to underbuilding, and underbuilding is to a large extent caused by zoning, and environmental/etc review
That's a comfortable myth. I wonder why housing cost hasn't fallen to zero in Detroit as the “law of supply and demand” say it should have.
> and too much democratic input
“Market gud, democracy bad and I am very smart”, I see …
(Also, if you scroll up a little, you'll see that my argument wasn't just about housing but more globally about basic necessities like housing and healthcare becoming less accessible, negating the apparent “standard of living” improvement. And while the US has been an exception in the 2010 with respect to housing costs, it unfortunately also has been an exception in terms of healthcare cost).
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