Comment by ThrowawayTestr
11 hours ago
The safest jobs are the ones that can't be done behind a screen. I'm a technician and there's no robot that could replace me and there won't be for a long time.
11 hours ago
The safest jobs are the ones that can't be done behind a screen. I'm a technician and there's no robot that could replace me and there won't be for a long time.
I think the ChatGPT moment for humanoid robotics is coming within a year or two.
I think you're off by at least an order of magnitude.
So was ChatGPT back in 2021.
You can't make 1000+ trash robots just to produce one that works okay sometimes and somehow make the economics work from that, so I very much doubt it.
> The ChatGPT moment for humanoid robotics is coming within a year or two.
How long after that moment did the ChatGPT robots need to invent the time travel machine which let you come back to 2026 to confidently claim this?
Edited to say "I think". I think that because I have been looking hard for developments in humanoid robotics generalization and new impressive demos and capabilities keep popping up all the time.
For example the recent Skild AI fairly general imitation capability. It really is a huge amount of effort on increasing the generality of humanoid robots going on now and a lot of demonstrations coming out showing off progress.
With the current trajectory there is no reason to think it will stop soon. There is a lot of motivation to innovate and train and it is pushing things forward.
If you're not looking for evidence of improvement, or rather looking for failure cases, then you're not going to see that trajectory.
Robotics cost way more to produce and support, unlike software
And physical damage is lot more expensive to repair in vast majority of use cases. Have fun when your humanoid window washing robot punches through your window. Or any other such cases.
When a robot can figure out how to contort it's body to climb inside a machine to replace an encoder, I'll start to worry.
Except that in the worst-case AI scenarios where a huge portion of the professionals who work "behind a screen" lose their jobs, the entire labor market will have to deal with that.
There's so much focus in the US on vocations but Americans have no idea how little mechanics, plumbers, etc. in other countries make. There are a variety of reasons for this but one of the biggest is that you can't charge $200/hour to fix a leak when $200 represents a double-digit percentage of a worker's monthly salary.
If white collar workers get laid off tradesmen are not going to be able to charge much any more either. Not to mention the price pressure that will accompany the increased supply of workers.