← Back to context

Comment by hn_submit

1 day ago

I agree that it's much better to design an EV to be an EV from the ground up. The reality is, however, that consumers don't want EVs for a myriad of reasons and prefer hybrids. And developing two completely different platforms is too expensive even for a higly profitable company like Toyota.

Might be true in some countries but EVs are rapidly becoming the highest sellers in many others. My experience is that once people experience an EV for the first time they prefer it over a hybrid/ICE car, unless there's a practical reason for needing hybrid range (which most people will argue but don't need day to day).

  • That was the case for me. We had one EV and one fossil fuel car for road trips. After driving the EV day to day it was so painful to use the other car that we decided to replace it with a second EV. A longer stop to recharge on a road trip once or twice a year is a small price to pay for the benefits of EV driving day to day.

  • I rented an EV (Ioniq) 2 years ago, to drive from Chicago to Detroit, and my experience was abysmal. I had to setup 3 different charging accounts on my phone, each with a min deposit of like $20 that I cannot get back. I got routed to empty truck stops where there was nowhere to eat within several miles, and it had charged 5% after 30 minutes, so we got back in the car and drove 20 minutes to find another charger. I spent so much of the trip with anxiety about where we would find a charger, if I would have cell coverage to download yet another shitty app, why the AC was turning off when I dropped below 10% battery, etc. Until I can roll up and swipe a credit card (or tap my phone) without ridiculous proprietary bs, EVs are a no-go. This is equivalent to Chrysler having Chrysler gas stations with Chrysler-only pumps that you must use the Chrysler app to fill up, and you can only buy gas in $100 increments.

    • This is why people buy Teslas. My experience on much larger road trips (Montana to TX or CA) is I would never, ever want to do one again in a petrol vehicle.

  • In my area of the country there is one very simple modification manufacturers could make to ensure their vehicles are wildly more useful: add diesel heaters. Heat the batteries and the people during the winters rather than using onboard power to do it. It would sip diesel and contribute hugely to utility. I am in the process of building my own because nobody makes one

    • Why? A lot of EVs these days comes with a heatpump so heating doesn’t use that much power. I live in a cold country where 98% of new cars are EVs and I have never heard anyone asking for something like this. A quick search on popular EV forums shows a few threads from 2010-2014. That’s it. I know webasto has a product like this, but there’s practically zero cars on the road with it installed.

      17 replies →

    • Every ev already has this today, 10 years ago it was in some leading cars like teslas. Only the leaf and a few others didn't have battery heating and cooling, and the fact that so many think those problems are in all evs set back the whole market.

      A 10 year old tesla can heat and cool the battery before leaving, you could set a daily time to heat it up, or just turn it on just before you go manually if you wished.

    • This feels like something that would be offered by US/Canada manufacturers as a niche option, and nowhere else. Norway seems to be coping just fine without it.

      (China also has regions of extreme cold; it would be interesting to see how regional EV adoption/adaptation has happened there)

    • In high school, one of my friends had a VW (air cooled) with a torpedo heater installed that would heat the interior to 30 degrees C in a matter of minutes - no matter how cold it was outside.

      Likewise, in university, my friend's army jeep had a gas heater that would melt snow off his canvas roof.

      People are consuming 30% of their battery power to heat the vehicle and batteries - and that's with reduced battery range. It only makes sense to add a container for gas/diesel and a heater - really can't understand why manufacturers are against instant and very low cost heat as an option to protect range and increase safety (in case you're stranded in the winter with a depleted battery).

      Best of luck adapting one to your vehicle.

      6 replies →

    • EVs should always be plugged in. There is electricity wherever it is parked. Heating or cooling can be done using grid, instead of onboard battery.

      EVs play a role in the energy ecosystem. They absorb excess production during the day and can supply power back to the grid by participating in a virtual power plant (VPP).

    • I have been waiting for a manufacturer to finally embrace this tech. I know electric buses already do it. I think people just have a mental barrier about this because EVs are supposed to be eco friendly.

      I really hope you succeed

  • Yeah in a country like Norway, a country that became filthy rich from selling...oil.

    I always have the feeling they're buying atonement for their sins.

You mean American consumers. Toyota still has to consider the rest of the world while America is basically a shrinking market now.

  • The US market is still large enough for Toyota to build several models that are sold only in North America. The Japanese market is also slowly shrinking due to demographic changes.

  • The US is roughly 30% of the world’s car spending, and if Toyota made a car only for the rest of the world, it would be more expensive than a competitor’s platform which is sold in EV and non-EV forms everywhere. An EV is still more expensive than the equivalent ICE and it would be even more expensive if it doesn’t share a platform.

    An EV built on a dedicated platform doesn’t become more profitable than the shared platform version until it sells about two million copies. That’s because it costs $1B more in fixed costs for a dedicated EV manufacturing setup. If that car isn’t going to sell that many, it’s not worth making dedicated. In Europe EVs are still outsold by ICE 4 to 1. Even if I did sell two million copies, all you have done is recouped your $1B, not made any more profit than if you did the shared platform.

> The reality is, however, that consumers don't want EVs for a myriad of reasons and prefer hybrids.

I think this is completely true for the period 2010 - 2030.

But from 2030 onwards, it seems 4 things are structurally different in many markets: 1. energy per kilometer, improved about 30% (from about 5 km per kWh to about 6.5) 2. kwh of useable battery, increased by about 80% 3. chargers per person, increased by about 20x 4. Charge speed increased by 5x from about 50 kW to 250 kW

All these figures are approximate averages for normal EVs, the very low / very high end are different.

So we have more battery, which we use less of to drive, which we can charge faster, and at way more places.

The reality is that an average European for example drives about 30km per day. Take the base model Tesla 3, it has 575 km of range and can charge 285 km in 15 minutes. The base model. So for the average driver that's a ~15 minute charge, every 10 days. For the average person an EV makes more and more sense.

That's today, for a base model car, which is suffering from cheap and quality competition out of China that will be even better.

Cars that will be released in 3 years from now (>2030) are even more favorable. I honestly think the 'myriad of reasons to prefer a hybrid' is soon going to be an exception, not the rule, for newly purchased cars (of course the 2nd hand market is a different, delayed story). And compromising your car design won't let you compete with manufacturers that don't compromise and go fully EV.

If you consider the squeeze that regulators worldwide are going to be putting on gas the next decades, I think going full-EV on new models makes sense. Sure you can keep selling some ICE cars but developing entirely new ICE models, and mixing an EV into them?

Consumers don't want an expensive EV. Now that EVs are becoming cheaper than ICE vehicles, they will take over the market because they are the better product.

  • This is true, but there other drawbacks. The charging infrastructure may not be there and the electrical grid may not be able to handle the load. Consumers know this and are therefore steering clear of EVs.

    I've predicted long ago that EVs will eventually be (much) cheaper than ICE cars since they're much simpler. An EV is basically a battery, an electric motor, four wheels and a steering wheel. ICE cars are incredibly complex. It's just that manufacturers had over 140 years of experience in making them reliable, safe and easy to own and drive.

    Even if they become cheaper governments may dissuade consumers from buying them for fear of overloading the electrical grid.

    • lol, this is complete nonsense. The average person has non idea how the electricity grid works or how much capacity it has. "The grid will collapse" is just FUD spread by the oil industry and parroted by the boomers who run electricity companies.

      Even in a city like Bombay, with a famously unplanned electric grid, people are buying electric scooters not because the government told them to, but because it's cheaper. Bombay has yet to have this "overload" that so many here seem to fear.

  • This is exactly right. 2026 Nissan LEAF is at 30k point, once it drops down to 20-25 it's over for internal combustion cars.

    • BYD already sells cars that cost less than $10,000 with a 5 star NCAP rating. And there are even cheaper Chinese EVs costing less than $6000 (OK, they're deathtraps but for some people that doesn't matter). And they're not junk either. They work and cut a few corners here an there. Good enough for a lot of price-conscious buyers.

      Most importantly: they have LFP batteries which last much longer than Li-ion ones in addition to being safer.

    • New EV from Renault and Fiat are below 25K Euro in Europe without subsidies. They are still more expensive than similar sized gasoline cars with manual gear shift, but the difference is small and will pays off in few years.

      1 reply →

    • No it's not. If you live in a flat where are you going to charge the thing? Around here there's almost no charging points and the ones that are there are constantly occupied.

      I gladly don't own a car but if I did it would be an ICE for sure.

      11 replies →

Seems like a chicken-and-egg problem. Part of the reason consumers don't want EVs is because there are limited options that are any good.

  • For me it's cost. I'd have to sink a couple of grand into getting my home electric up to speed most likely, and then I'll be paying a bunch of extra money to get the car. Turns into a math problem about paying for electric now or gas over the next n years and electric usually breaks even or loses.

    • If you can plug your car into a standard 120v 15a outlet that will give you about 35-45 miles of range overnight. Unless you have a really long commute, that's probably enough on average, and if you have a week where you're driving more you can supplement your charging by going by a public fast-charger. 240v 15a gives you twice as much charging and probably doesn't require very expensive electrical upgrades, just finding a circuit you can dedicate to the car and swapping the breaker+outlet.

      3 replies →

    • I own an EV while living in an apartment building with only an outside parking spot and with no EV charger at my spot, and it’s so fine. Granted I only do 1000km per month on average, but still - every other week I just leave my car parked overnight at an AC charger near my apartment complex and I’m covered, while the cost of ownership is much lower than a typical ICE car

    • Just a heads up, you don't need an electric panel upgrade anymore for charging. There are UL-certified systems that monitor the power use for the whole panel and load shed the EV charger if needed.

      I installed one from Emporia, for about $500.

      1 reply →

    • Can your board run a hairdryer 12h? If you can you can produce 24kwh or basically 100-150km driving per day.

    • At least you have a charger option. The non-rich of us who rent appartments have none. The four chargers in my biulding would cost more per-mile than buying gas... if they were working. They are currently down for some random reason (new cell provider, no connectivity in our carpark.)

  • Had to chuckle at this when outside the US the problem with EVs is that there are so many options people find it tough to choose.

    Denza or Zeekr or Genesis or Tesla? Xpeng or Leapmotor or Geely or Kia or Hyundai or Mazda? BYD or MG or GWM or Chery or Jaecoo?

    Plus the various Porsche, Audi and VW electric options, Subaru and Toyota, even the new Range Rover. There are far more electric options than petrol, and a lot of them are significantly better at the same or lower price point.

What consumers want varies a lot by country and region. It becomes apparent if you look at a map, e.g. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/european-alternative-fuels-ob... , that there's a sort of ""geographic contagion"" as adoption spreads out from Norway.

Part of this is charger infrastructure. But I think part of it is also social proof: once someone you know has an EV, or you start seeing them parked around you, it looks like a more realistic option. People don't like the unknown.

Differential cost also matters. This doesn't have to be subsidies, but most countries are afraid to tax new ICE vehicles to the extent that Scandinavian countries do.

In all markets where Chinese EVs are available, BEV sales significantly outstrip hybrids in 2026. EU, Australia, you name it.

At the end of the day hybrids are a transitional technology, and it makes sense to ditch the ICE entirely as soon as you can.

Current Toyota engines - several years in production already - used in hybrids have 40% thermodynamic efficiency, new Chinese engines (Geely and BYD) - 45% and soon coming out Toyota engine is claimed to hit 50%. With the numbers like this the hybrids ( and plugins, given the falling prices and increasing charge/weight density of the batteries) seem to still have a long and profitable path forward.

Granted it may result in Toyota losing the battle in the long run. On the other hand any large improve in batteries may gradually bring Toyota into EV world just by letting to upsize the plugins' batteries.

Personally i like very much my 2015 Prius Plugin, and the only thing i'd want about it is to have additional 20KWh of batteries (may be one day i'll throw them in myself :)

  • I drive a Toyota PHEV and love it. All of my daily driving is EV, and then I switch it into hybrid mode on the weekends for longer trips. Hybrids/PHEVs are great.

    But I would much rather be doing all of my driving in EV mode. I just think it's going to take another generation of battery improvements before we start seeing affordable 3-row MPVs (which is what I drive) with decent range. The VW Buzz and Kia PV5 have well under 300 miles range, for example.

    China does have some pretty awesome looking EV MPVs like the Zeekr 009, which supposedly gets up to 500 miles range. But that won't be available here any time soon.

    Improvements in charging speed and improved charging infrastruture will also help a lot.

    • > Zeekr 009

      "Dual-motor variants produce up to 603–789 horsepower (450 kW to over 580 kW), delivering rapid acceleration comparable to sports sedans"

      speaking about anemic minivan for soccer moms...

      3 replies →

  • > On the other hand any large improve in batteries may gradually bring Toyota into EV world

    A relatively fast and large improvement in battery cost would bankrupt Toyota. Everybody will just buy BEVs.

  • Very impressive for a combustion engine, but still way worse than the ~90% efficiency of a battery electric car

    • If your electricity comes from hydro, solar, wind - yes. If your electricity comes from fossil fuels - best power plant efficiency 60% - then not really. In US fossil fuels generate 60% of all the electricity.

      9 replies →

I think if OEMs prioritized phevs more as a gateway drug, the transition to EVs would have been a lot less painful in NA. Even just driving a PHEV with 50km electric range makes you appreciate how great an EV can be.

Sadly, there's few good PHEV options. And even Toyota underserves this market.

  • Frankly, I think a PHEV is flat out better than a full EV. The electric range is good enough for day to day driving, and you have the combustion engine for long trips (which EVs still suck at, taking 30-40 minutes to fully charge even at a very fast charger). It's more complex which is a downside, but I think having the best of both types of vehicle is worth it.

    • The complexity of PHEVs is overblown in my opinion. My Toyota PHEV uses the exact same engine and electric motors as the equivalent HEV model. The only difference is the bigger battery and charging port. And Toyota HEVs have proven to be extremely reliable.

      And yeah I've got to bring it in for oil changes, but that's no big deal for me. They also take care of other things like inspecting the car, changing wiper blades, air filters, putting on/taking off winter tires, and maintaining my coating. It's usually pretty quick (and they give me a loaner when it's not going to be quick), they are friendly, and they have snacks and wifi. It's also a relatively inexpensive compared to the total cost of owning a car.

      There is some complexity for the driver in terms of deciding whether you want to drive in EV or Hybrid mode if you want to get the most out of it - so not something I would recommend for everyone - but no problem at all for me.

      The bigger issue I would say it cost. They cost significantly more than HEV equivalents, and it's not something most people are likely to recoup in fuel savings. But still worth it IMO for additional (and instantaneous) power and quieter ride.

      PHEV was definitely the no brainer option for me (vs EV) when I looked at the MPV options available in my country, and the state of charging infrastructure. But I look forward to the day when battery tech and charging infrastructure improve the the point where I can comfortably ditch the ICE.

    • Have you owned a full EV? I have never once wanted a PHEV since owning one. Full EV is better for me.

"Consumers don't want EVs" is an absolutely insane take. You're disqualified from this discussion.

It's not consumers decision, it's a dealers mafia. If everyone on EV, you will not change oil and other gasoline attributes repairs. If you have hybrid, it's a cherry on the top, best of both worlds, pay for regular issues of gas and electric car combined :)

  • [flagged]

    • Neglecting a cabin air filter isn't going to make your EV fall apart. You can neglect that on an ICE too. Imagine how much worse these people would have it with an ICE vehicle - neglecting oil changes, oil filter, brake fluid, radiator coolant, air intake filter, spark plugs, valve cover gasket, power steering fluid, putting the wrong gas in, topping off with the wrong oil, etc...

      1 reply →

    • I own my EV for 6 years+ already, still runs like new. Yeah, I do not know how to change my air filter, someone in my family changed it, and I only been in service once when my 12 volt battery died.

      I was able to drive there, they did some breaks fluid change for free and thats it, meanwhile my friend with a bmw spent ~$2.5k in service since 3 years he bought it.

      The only expense I had is changing tires, that i did in a regular tire shop.

      Yeah keep laughing.

      2 replies →

    • Are you saying EV owners are new to car ownership? Do you have sources for your claims? I have a hard time following your logic.

    • I'm pretty sure that the experience needed to perform the vast majority of maintenance work on an EV can be gotten in a week of interactions with ChatGPT.

      Whereas something like doing your own oil change requires a lot of preparation to get right and then you still have the issue of disposing of the oil.

      Obviously for repairs you are more screwed with an EV than with an ICE.

      1 reply →