Comment by hyperpape
8 hours ago
Go to Dan Luu's evaluation (https://danluu.com/futurist-predictions/), search for "Appendix: detailed information on predictions". Seems like Kurzweil's has a huge number of awful predictions. This is from four years ago, so a few things are closer to being real now. But many things he predicted for the early 2000s still haven't arrived.
To be clear I’m not saying he got everything right but if you look at the missed ones, many were/are possible technically
What’s the value of predictions if they’re not good enough to make decisions on?
The same way if you’re exploring an uncharted territory you generally pick a direction that has a hill so you can chart a better course to the next one
All the hills he suggested heading towards were the right hills even if he assumed they were higher in altitude than they were
More importantly the mountain that is the technological singularity he did a good job defining the hilly path for
AGI (strong AI in his words) is just one of the major foothills