It's quite amazing how this values SpaceX at 10bn, less than 50% of WhatsApp. This makes me think that there's something systemically wrong with the current incarnation of post-oligarchic shareholder-controlled short term interest based capitalism. One can argue that WhatsApp has better money making potential than SpaceX, but that is only because the whole system is warped.
While I see your point, I think there are two important things to remember here. (Note: I understand the long term implications of an interplanetary species, just providing context)
A) whatsapp improves the daily lives of hundreds of millions of people. You don't necessarily need an absurd customer lifetime value to get a $19b valuation with that many people using your product.
B) SpaceX provides almost no current value to anybody. And the people it does provide value to are "free riders" in the sense that they love watching space travel and get to watch SpaceX regardless of whether or not they pay for it.
Just an inexact thought experiment. Let's say we poll the roughly 1b people living in first world, and ask them each to pay $10 to see SpaceX do whatever SpaceX does. How many people even think it's worth $10?
Let's say we poll the roughly 1b people living in first world, and ask them each to pay $10 to see SpaceX do whatever SpaceX does. How many people even think it's worth $10?
I just wan't to add that the problem is not that SpaceX provides less to humanity than WhatsApp.
The problem is that most people are not really far-sighted, but only see things which benefit themselves in a predictable amount of time.
Why companies like SpaceX (or NASA) are important has already been answered with Why Explore Space? A 1970 Letter to a Nun in Africa
While I can see how whatsapp can be valued higher than SpaceX, I don't see how this logic makes sense on any level. You could use the exact same logic to make any B2B company seem worthless when compared to a consumer app.
I am not so sure that is the reason for WhatsApp crazy validation. I feel that the reason for that was that it represented a danger for Facebook and Mark wisely acquired at any cost.
WhatsApp is big outside of the US because (at least in Panama, were I was born) text messages are not included in the mobile phone plan; however, you can get a data plan for a monthly fee and keep in contact without additional charges. In the US most people use text messages to communicate.
C) SpaceX also has considerable risk of failure so you have to factor this into a valuation and investment. Whatsapp has eliminated much of this risk and is already a developed and implemented product.
I am not saying Whatsapp has anywhere near the potential value of SpaceX but it is important to factor the amount of risk given the stage a project is at.
WhatsApp is a consumer product. It lives as it breathes. As long as people/consumer keeps pumping in money & time to it, its value will stay or rise from its current value. Once that stops and people/consumer stop using it, its value will eventually fall.
SpaceX on the other hand is not a consumer product yet, but is aiming to become one. Consider it just like Boeing or AirBus, nobody would have valued them as a multi-billionaire company ( back in 1900s when they were founded). Their technological advancements and the development phase would have been same as SpaceX right now.
But eventually it became a very integral part of human life. They have become a consumer product, their value is now because of people using it daily. And unlike WhatsApp people won't stop using air-travel.
Everyday people do not invest directly into it like they do(?) for WhatsApp, but indirectly by using airline services they are paying for it. Similarly for SpaceX everyday people aren't investing in it right now but eventually ( as per SpaceX's ambition ) people would just like they are doing for air-travel.
I think comparison is ok, but people are missing an important distinction - yes, the system works exactly as one would expect it to. There are good reasons for the system to value WhatsApp higher than SpaceX. The algorithm's implementation is correct. The problem is, we're using a wrong algorithm - a system that begins to increasingly value wrong things.
Yeah, imagine investing in things like... the first electricity service provider, or the first telephone, or the first TV. All of those things are multi-billion dollar industries. I'm sure this entire exchange has been played out before for other emergent industries!
SpaceX comes with, well, an astronomical (snicker) level of risk attached to it. So I suppose the idea is that SpaceX might well end up being worth a lot more than WhatsApp, but WhatsApp and its user base are worth a lot now. It is also unlikely that they will end up not being worth anything in the future (if we hit a second dotcom bubble WhatsApp might end up being worth a lot less than their current valuation, but like AOL, it won't be literally worth nothing). SpaceX might.
There is also some level of tragedy of the commons problem going on, in which SpaceX benefits all of us every time they successfully test a new design, but it only benefits their investors when they manage to get mining rights to the moon or set up martian tourism or the like. Goals which are possible - which is the impressive thing - but still very risky bets.
SpaceX is in an industry with better financed/politically connected companies and an unpredictable revenue stream. It's a risky business by every definition. WhatsApp by comparison is a stable, very popular, growing and strategically important messaging platform.
And if you think that human-human communication is less valuable than putting a few satellites in space (NASA/ESA/ISRO/etc are the real keys to future space exploration) then I would argue your priorities are a bit warped.
WhatsApp by comparison is a stable, very popular, growing and strategically important messaging platform.
I'd rather phrase that as "WhatsApp by comparison is a currently stable, currently popular and growing generic platform implementable and implemented by thousands of companies and hobbyyists worldwide with nothing unique about the company except the current user-base, a (mostly free-loading) user-base which has shown great willingness to flock to the next great thing should this service ever do the wrong moves".
You know... The sort of statement you don't make about 20 billion dollar companies. They should have a more solid footing than being trendy right now. To put it in the dryset terms possible: They have no unique value-proposition.
SpaceX is doing real shit which might make an impact on the future of mankind. To me just comparing them in the same context seems offensive.
WhatsApp (and similar) will never make any of the invested money back though. Its value is purely in chance that it will grow and someone else will buy you out in a few months or years. Its only valuable asset are users, and they will be gone. So someone at the end of long chain on of rich people will weep.
With SpaceX, there is enormous value in the company as it is, even if it went bankrupt tomorrow.
> (NASA/ESA/ISRO/etc are the real keys to future space exploration)
Now are they? NASA itself now outsourcing its LEO capacity to SpaceX. And SpaceX is much more focused than government agencies thanks to virtue of having a single leader with an idea, as opposed to bureaucracy and CYA-ism. Of course, space exploration is not a one-man endeavour, but I wouldn't dismiss the impact SpaceX already has and likely will have in the future - they're empowering those big space agencies.
>And if you think that human-human communication is less valuable than putting a few satellites in space (NASA/ESA/ISRO/etc are the real keys to future space exploration) then I would argue your priorities are a bit warped.
that is exactly bifurcation point each technological civilization faces (be it whole human race today or China 600 years ago) - to "go in", i.e. collapse into something like ant-colony or to "go out", i.e. explore and expand.
I'm surprised it is the top comment. If I remember correctly, it has been discussed a lot of times on HN. And most of the times, people agreed it wasn't a fair comparison.
I think WhatsApp potential value caps out at 50B or so. SpaceX potential value might be in the trillions (low probability). So while their current valuations might seem 'wrong', the long term potential value might be closer to your value judgement. There are very few large investors with a 20 year time horizon. I am not sure if that is a fault of capitalism. I am not sure another system of resource allocation would do better, do you?
This has nothing to do with short term interest based capitalism. Whether privately held, a charity, or any other structure, if what you are making is not of general interest to the population at large, it's going to have a pretty hard time. The only way to fix that is to eliminate free markets and democracy so people of average or less intelligence/foresight have no say in the appropriation of resources.
People will disagree with you on that, but I think such disagreement misses a crucial observation - economic value was highly correlated to the value for humanity. But as we took all the low-hanging fruits we can see those two senses of value increasingly diverge.
Hell, for a simple analogy, it's like with solid rocket boosters - you should appreciate how far they got you, but you definitely don't want to keep being attached to them when they burn out and decide to not go to space.
SpaceX is the commercialisation of space exploration and that's just how valuation works in commercial applications. It is, however, remiss to value to science and progress in dollar terms. TCP/IP is far more valuable than all of the Internet companies combined but not in dollar terms.
That's similar to saying a toddler is less productive than a recent college graduate.
That is to say: WhatsApp is much further along its individual trajectory than SpaceX is. In decades, the value of SpaceX is likely to eclipse WhatsApp, which in all likelihood won't even exist any longer.
In this analogy you seem to believe the trajectory for this toddler is set in stone. The reality is at it's infancy (which is where Space X is in the grand scheme) it can look very promising but turn out very bad, or a competitor can drastically outpace. Any valuation should discount for the level of risk.
A lot can happen over time. 10 years ago MySpace was by far the dominant social network and Blackberry was the mobile powerhouse. Seemed like neither would fall with so much momentum behind them but we see how that played out.
I think one of the reasons people lose sight of that is because they look back and see all those products, all that improvement in quality of life that capitalism brought us. Those things are undeniable. But one can't infer from this that the system will forever be awesome. It was aligned with human goals initially, but as time goes by, it's less and less aligned.
My guess is that a part of the issue is that VCs can understand WhatsApp. They feel like that can assess it's worth, associated risk, and come up with a valuation independently.
With science based startups the partner at a VC can't easily make an independent assessment. They have to rely on specialists to do tech D&D and they rarely trust them completely. So they shy away from those deals, or they factor the risk into their valuations.
This behavior somewhat ironically can make these investments higher risk. There is a degree to which fund raising at a lower level makes a company a higher risk, because they have less money to work with and can't afford to make mistakes. (the converse is also somewhat true).
Perhaps it's partly because space is seen as higher-risk than social media? The valuation would then be lower because people lower their expectations based on the risk of failure.
Having just finished watching The Men Who Built America[1], Musk reminds me so much of the great American entrepreneurs of the last 200 years (Vanderbilt, Rockefeller, Morgan, Ford, Carnegie). Ridiculously ambitious and fearless entrepreneurs who literally by sheer force of will moved humanity forward.
It's definitely possible, but he's not in that category yet IMO. If Tesla actually makes a car that middle class Americans want and can afford, then he can seriously disrupt the motor industry and be on par with those guys. At this point though, Tesla could go out of business and it would just be a footnote in automotive history 30 years from now. SpaceX is similar at this point, it's on the path to something great, but right now its just an early competitor in the private space industry.
The origin of the term is quite interesting. From the wiki link:
The term robber baron derives from the medieval German lords who charged nominally illegal tolls (tolls unauthorized by the Holy Roman Emperor) on the primitive roads crossing their lands or the larger tolls on ships traversing the Rhine—all such actions without adding anything of value,(see robber baron) but instead lining one's pockets to the detriment (added costs) of the common good.
I've been wondering if part of this SpaceX satellite gambit is to help Tesla Motors. Think about it: if and when there are 500,000 or a million or several million Tesla vehicles (including the Model 3) all over the world, plus thousands of SuperChargers, and they all need to be connected to the Net for messaging and value-added services, then what better way than to just have 'em connect to the SpaceX service?
Right now Tesla Model S vehicles connect via AT&T (at least in the US, don't know what the carriers are in other countries). It's a tiny number of "devices" connected to the network so it is probably expensive for Tesla. At some point it gets really expensive. One assumes the Model 3 will have the same always-on connection that the Model S/X has. Millions of Models S/X/3 around the world mean a lot of communications costs. And then there are the SuperChargers, that will in time no doubt be communicating with cars too, to improve the user experience.
I suspect a few million "devices" connected to the SpaceX version of global wifi would be way cheaper than connecting to a dozen or two carriers in countries around the world.
The early models even had free unlimited worldwide 3g connectivity. Which of course was too expensive for such a cheap device, but shows that offering car connectivity really can't be so costly.
If there are going to be thousands of Tesla cars in each city, maybe it would make more sense for them to create a mesh network and connect to the internet via Wi-Fi when parked (at Superchargers, at home, etc.). This could drastically reduce the cellular bandwidth required for less than the hundreds of millions of dollars required for a satellite solution.
I think it is a lot more about providing communications to mars. They are basically doing a/b testing on earth for blanketing a planet in communication. Also, they could connect that network to mars to have interplanetary communication over something that resembles the internet. Tesla can lease bandwith (or have their users lease bandwith) much easier and cheaper than launching a fully fledged system like this
Well, this is not exactly A/B testing (maybe a pilot program would be a better term), but as for the rest of your comment - I recall Musk saying something about Mars lacking Internet and him wanting to put it there.
Makes me wish average joe could buy spacex stock. Willing investors shouldnt have to be elite or accredited. Just believers and supporters of a better future.
Most companies that raise money by other means than publicly trading stock frankly don't want the head ache of dealing with shareholders.
A company like SpaceX can raise all the money they need from a small number of like minded investors. It saves them the hassle of dealing with thousands of shareholders with their own risk tolerances, investment goals, etc.
And once you exceed a certain number of shareholders, you are subject to nearly the same reporting requirement as a publicly traded company anyway, so you get the downsides without the upsides.
That's all well-and-good for SpaceX but it proved to be pretty catastrophic for the dozens of pump-and-dumps that bankrupted many Americans when we tried that previously.
We don't use legal mechanisms to protect citizens from an endless myriad of things, many which are much more dangerous than investing in private startups. This is really a way to keep the proles out of the good investments. It's infuriating and unjust that the wealthy have more rights.
So has putting it all on black in Vegas, alcohol, and any other number of statistically proven vices. At least investment has some measure of upside. But yeah, I'd like the $n trillion in debt government tell me how to manage my money.
Sounds good in theory, but nowadays what happens is companies go public when they are fully valued, making them ripe for collapse when insiders take advantage of the liquidity to exit positions. When companies go public early, opportunities are created for retail investors to make huge money (AOL, Dell, Amazon, Walmart to name a few examples). Now it's like, you get to buy at the very top and it's for your own good. horaaaaay
You can buy Google as a proxy. A poor proxy but proxy nonetheless. The "plus" side is Google might make similar investments in other ventures like this so your bet on space is more diversified.
I wouldn't be surprised to see SpaceX do an IPO in the future. I'll definitely buy in even if I would do that as a kind of kick-starter rather than for the potential return.
I am not surprised. In one of the Ted Talks, Larry Page had clearly mentioned that he would rather leave all his money to someone like Elon Musk than donating to a Charity. He is going down that path.
Can someone with some experience in satellites tell us what is possible in terms of satellite internet. For example, I really doubt most individual people would be able to actually connect directly through satellites. If that is the case, a satellite radio would have to detect and distinguish millions of different simultaneous data streams. I doubt there is enough spectrum for this.
I'm only familiar with the basics of the networks capabilities per my former position as a technician for WildBlue/Exede. Connecting directly through satellite is certainly possible if more people were interested in it. Our satellite networks are still fairly basic primarily because there's not been a historical abundance of interest in the technology due to its limitations compared to terrestrial networking.
ViaSat-1 is (as far as I'm aware) the most capable satellite currently in orbit, with a rate of 140 Gbit/s. Its bandwidth capacity when launched larger than all of the other North American satellites combined.
I would be VERY surprised to learn that the fundamental issue with this would be spectrum capacity, as the K band satellites operate in is very wide.
The way current satellite technologies typically deal with concurrent data streams is to split up into 'beams' that cover a specific region. Currently VS1 uses 72 bands but they're spread all over Canada and the US. With more satellites and tighter beam placement it's certainly feasible to have millions of simultaneous connections.
I feel like I kind of rambled on there - if there's anything in particular you'd like me to expand upon I'd be happy to (and if someone notices I'm wrong about anything please let me know!).
> if there's anything in particular you'd like me to expand upon I'd be happy to
Since you asked :)
How much of this is relying on phased array antennae on the satellite and does that mean you won't have to aim a dish or will the downlink for residential require a tracking antenna or do those also work using phased arrays these days?
Back in the 90s I use to install 2 way Earth Stations for Hughes. An Earth station is basically a box that puts TCP/IP over Satellite. They are installed in many gas stations in the US. If you drive down the street and see a white dish on the roof, chances are my company did the install ;) These links handle credit card transactions for paying at the pump and they also handle lottery purchases.
The industry wasn't regulated very much until a situation in which some installers aiming dishes for EDJ (Edward Jones Financials) were knock things off line by aiming dishes at wrong satellites. I don't know much about how the technology works but it became apparent that aiming a dish at the wrong "bird" as we call them could interfere with others.
The EDJ thing was big news back in the day although a google search turns up nothing. It reportedly knocked Edward Jones off line for something close to a week while many were deployed to go and re-aim satellite dishes.
After this incident, the FCC got more involved and now to install a two way satellite dish, you have to take a course and pass it. My whole team was required to go through this training.
We also installed 2 way satellite internet for a company out of Canada that had a PCI card you plugged into your PC. The PCI card would then connect to the dish transmitter and LNB. The down speed was around 4-5Mb/s while the up speed was very slow at around 128Kb/s. I forget the name of the company but they had a proprietary driver for the PCI card that compressed the TCP packets in order to deal with the huge latency of traveling up to space and back down. They also had patents on a modified TCP/IP stack whereby they could locally ACK outbound TCP packets to improve throughput (as it was explained to me at the time).
In the past such services have used geosynchronous satellites, at least far as I am aware. The problem with that is the great height of the satellites means a pretty serious lag. IIRC, about 250 ms, round trip. LEO satellites, however, would have a tiny amount of lag added.
I'm optimistic about satellite internet done right, but I'm worried the speeds and lag are going to make it a bit frustrating compared to fiber. In 5 years (when this will be completed), I think virtual reality will be penetrating the masses. Can satellite internet handle virtual meetings, virtual online gaming, etc without major lagging?
These are going to be LEO satellites (no higher than a few hundred km), instead of GEO satellites, which would make the lower bound of the latency pretty low (comparable to cable or DSL).
The alternative to the market served by satellite Internet isn't fiber, it's nothing (or in some cases, cell towers). To address your point: The satellite network would almost certainly be in LEO. There's no fundamental reason why LEO satellites should have high latency. They're only a few hundred kilometers out, so round trip times are measured in single digit milliseconds. GEO sats have latency (and bandwidth) issues due to their distance from the surface.
I suspect the initial use case is low bandwidth protocols (email, IM, notifications etc) that don't mind high latency rather than "high" bandwidth stuff (browsing, streaming video etc).
It's certainly better than the alternative in some places, which is zero internet. Look at how widespread "dumb phone" use is throughout Africa. Some incredible and empowering things can happen when unprivileged folks are given what we might consider outdated technologies.
There's probably no reason this can't act as another competitor to fixed broadband in the US market, bypassing one of the major issues holding back greater competition in that market. Especially if SpaceX can get the launches down to a cheap enough point. And it should certainly be capable of acting as a competitor to 4G LTE and the next generation.
... But there's dramatically less when you put the satellites much closer to earth, as they're planning to do here. These are LEO satellites, not the far-away geostationary stuff you see with older communication satellites.
Google Ventures' budget is reportedly nearer $300-$500M/year so I would imagine this is something different. There were rumblings of Satellite internet coming out of GoogleX but this seems to fit with their new Energy / Access group (Where Project Loon ended up) too. So my answer is that it definitely won't maybe end up in Google Ventures.
Google Inc. does direct investments from time to time. Also they have their growth investment arm, Google Capital, which has invested some large sums recently in Glassdoor, etc. (but surely not $1B in one company unless they acquired that company). Perhaps Google Inc. is leading the investment with the round consisting of many undisclosed players across private equity, etc.
Considering satellites at that altitude and quantity would be ideal for cell handsets. I would be surprised if Apple wasn't trying to get a piece of this action as well.
Spectrum rights came up in the announcement video for the opening of the Space X satellite branch. The response was that spectrum to satellite is not scarce as long as roof penetration isn't required. Handset to satellite would work against that unless it did some sort of voip satellite/wifi handoff.
Yea, looking at the announcement they are talking about something partially optically based. I guess we will see what they can pull off. Optical seems like a difficult choice for anything that moves though.
Even if he wanted to, Cook doesn't have enough power at Apple, practically, to be actually in a position to do that yet.
I mean clout. He literally can't personally decide to do that (yet) and just do it.
The Apple watch is the first category or undertaking of a similar size and novelty, and has yet to be accepted or succeed. (It will.)
My comment is being misinterpreted so I've clarified above. My comment isn't about what Apple can 'afford to do' it's about what Tim Cook can 'afford to do' (politically and in terms of consequences.)
Tim Cook in case you forgot is the CEO of Apple and has been instrumental in its success. He is also ridiculously well respected within Apple. Not sure what more he could do.
That said he isn't stupid enough to invest in something like this. Apple doesn't benefit all that much from having more people on the internet. Google does.
Spectrum that can penetrate walls/homes is very scarce so that won't happen. It appears these sats will be for lasercom and home internet (requiring a dish/antenna).
Cable and DSL also have an 'outdoors' component, adding an external antenna for either improved bandwidth or to get the thing to work at all should be an option for a new broadband medium.
And when you're on the move that doesn't matter. One way to make it work untethered indoors is to simply bridge the satellite downlink box to a wifi repeater. That would get you coverage indoors and outdoors from regular devices around your house, and if they sell enough of these downlink boxes they could conceivably pool the bandwidth by creating a mesh of them.
All kinds of interesting options, even if it doesn't work directly indoors.
I don't see why it shouldn't. This has been the case pretty much every day for a long time so clearly it isn't against the rules. I agree that it isn't ideal but it's better to link to a good source than to find a poorly written article that is free to access.
I love that this link is here, IANAL, but I'm curious: would pasting this link here violate the CFAA or Web Entertainment Theft Bill since it's bypassing a paywall? Would it count as a misdemeanor in that case to actually follow the link?
Google Nears $1 Billion Investment in SpaceX Infusion Would Back Push to Provide Internet Access Via Satellites
SpaceX delivered cargo to the international space station last week. SpaceX delivered cargo to the international space station last week. NASA/REUTERS By ROLFE WINKLER, EVELYN RUSLI and ANDY PASZTOR Jan. 19, 2015 5:30 p.m. ET
Google Inc. is close to investing roughly $1 billion in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. to support its nascent efforts to deliver Internet access via satellites, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The investment would value SpaceX, backed by Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk , at more than $10 billion, according to this person. It isn’t clear what exact stake Google could end up with in the fast-growing space company.
If Google completes the deal, it would be the Internet company’s latest effort to use futuristic technology to spread Internet access to remote regions of the world, alongside high-altitude balloons and solar-powered drones. By extending Web access, Google increases the number of people who can use its services.
Spokesmen for Google and SpaceX declined to comment.
News of Google’s potential investment was reported by tech blog The Information.
Google has been considering satellite-based Internet service for more than a year. In late 2013, it hired satellite-industry veteran Greg Wyler, who at one point last year had more than 10 people working for him. Mr. Wyler left Google last summer and is now developing his own satellite-Internet venture.
SpaceX builds and launches rockets and spacecraft. Mr. Musk last week described a general concept for SpaceX to launch hundreds of satellites into relatively low orbit to deliver Internet access across the globe. Mr. Musk told BusinessWeek the project could cost $10 billion to build and take at least five years, but gave no details about funding or manufacturing plans.
For several months Mr. Musk has been mulling ways to expand SpaceX’s rocket-and-spacecraft manufacturing operations to designing and building satellites, according to aerospace-industry officials who have talked with him. Though short on specifics, his latest comments were the clearest sign yet of a long-term commitment to such expansion plans.
It is likely to take years to establish designs and potentially set up a specialized satellite-making facility. But SpaceX already has some important building blocks. Industry officials said the company builds its own navigation and flight-control systems for spacecraft, which could provide some elements for satellites. There also are synergies between parts SpaceX makes today for solar arrays on spacecraft and such devices intended for satellites.
One big technical and financial challenge facing the proposed venture is the cost installing ground-based antennas and computer terminals to receive the satellite signals. That issue has bedeviled some earlier Internet-via-satellite projects and threatens to complicate Google’s efforts, satellite industry officials and consultants say.
Another unanswered question is how SpaceX plans to transmit Internet signals to Earth. The company isn’t believed to control rights to radio spectrum.
Mr. Musk has discussed using optical-laser technology in his satellites, according to a person familiar with the matter. That technology works by beaming information from satellites in space. But lasers wouldn’t be a reliable way to deliver Internet service to Earth because, unlike radio waves, they don’t easily pass through clouds.
The talks are somewhat unusual for Mr. Musk, who has resisted most outside investments that could reduce even slightly his control over SpaceX. Industry officials said if problems arise, SpaceX might need additional capital in the next few years to fund new rocket development and more launches. It isn’t clear what terms are under discussion.
The Wall Street Journal reported Mr. Musk’s interest in satellite-Internet service in November, saying he was talking with Mr. Wyler.
Mr. Wyler last week said his new venture, OneWeb Ltd., had secured funding from Richard Branson ’s Virgin Group and chip company Qualcomm Inc. Mr. Wyler said he hopes to provide Internet service from a constellation of 648 satellites in low-Earth orbit, using a large block of radio spectrum he controls. Mr. Wyler estimated the plan would cost as much as $2 billion.
Messrs. Musk and Wyler stopped working together because of disagreements over control of any joint project, according to a person familiar with their discussions.
I would imagine he means trying to navigate the debris when sending other stuff into orbit, or bringing spacecraft home. I've often wondered this myself... at some point do we have so much stuff up there it's near-impossible to get spacecraft out without serious danger to their crews? And what about when it's time to retire them?
I'm guessing they are referring to real-estate capacity. Not including space junk there are about 2,300 satellites in orbit. This is quite a proportional increase and the risk of collision with junk will go up.
It's quite amazing how this values SpaceX at 10bn, less than 50% of WhatsApp. This makes me think that there's something systemically wrong with the current incarnation of post-oligarchic shareholder-controlled short term interest based capitalism. One can argue that WhatsApp has better money making potential than SpaceX, but that is only because the whole system is warped.
While I see your point, I think there are two important things to remember here. (Note: I understand the long term implications of an interplanetary species, just providing context)
A) whatsapp improves the daily lives of hundreds of millions of people. You don't necessarily need an absurd customer lifetime value to get a $19b valuation with that many people using your product.
B) SpaceX provides almost no current value to anybody. And the people it does provide value to are "free riders" in the sense that they love watching space travel and get to watch SpaceX regardless of whether or not they pay for it.
Just an inexact thought experiment. Let's say we poll the roughly 1b people living in first world, and ask them each to pay $10 to see SpaceX do whatever SpaceX does. How many people even think it's worth $10?
Let's say we poll the roughly 1b people living in first world, and ask them each to pay $10 to see SpaceX do whatever SpaceX does. How many people even think it's worth $10?
I just wan't to add that the problem is not that SpaceX provides less to humanity than WhatsApp.
The problem is that most people are not really far-sighted, but only see things which benefit themselves in a predictable amount of time.
Why companies like SpaceX (or NASA) are important has already been answered with Why Explore Space? A 1970 Letter to a Nun in Africa
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4372563
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While I can see how whatsapp can be valued higher than SpaceX, I don't see how this logic makes sense on any level. You could use the exact same logic to make any B2B company seem worthless when compared to a consumer app.
"SpaceX provides almost no current value to anybody."
Well, someone payed SpaceX for a delivery flight to the ISS the other day, they're certainly providing value in that context
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I am not so sure that is the reason for WhatsApp crazy validation. I feel that the reason for that was that it represented a danger for Facebook and Mark wisely acquired at any cost.
WhatsApp is big outside of the US because (at least in Panama, were I was born) text messages are not included in the mobile phone plan; however, you can get a data plan for a monthly fee and keep in contact without additional charges. In the US most people use text messages to communicate.
C) SpaceX also has considerable risk of failure so you have to factor this into a valuation and investment. Whatsapp has eliminated much of this risk and is already a developed and implemented product.
I am not saying Whatsapp has anywhere near the potential value of SpaceX but it is important to factor the amount of risk given the stage a project is at.
they uplift communication satellites, this is quite a value, isn't?
"improves the daily lives of hundreds of millions of people" really? I bit grandiose dont you think.
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Very weird and imo, wrong comparison.
WhatsApp is a consumer product. It lives as it breathes. As long as people/consumer keeps pumping in money & time to it, its value will stay or rise from its current value. Once that stops and people/consumer stop using it, its value will eventually fall.
SpaceX on the other hand is not a consumer product yet, but is aiming to become one. Consider it just like Boeing or AirBus, nobody would have valued them as a multi-billionaire company ( back in 1900s when they were founded). Their technological advancements and the development phase would have been same as SpaceX right now.
But eventually it became a very integral part of human life. They have become a consumer product, their value is now because of people using it daily. And unlike WhatsApp people won't stop using air-travel.
Everyday people do not invest directly into it like they do(?) for WhatsApp, but indirectly by using airline services they are paying for it. Similarly for SpaceX everyday people aren't investing in it right now but eventually ( as per SpaceX's ambition ) people would just like they are doing for air-travel.
> Very weird and imo, wrong comparison.
I think comparison is ok, but people are missing an important distinction - yes, the system works exactly as one would expect it to. There are good reasons for the system to value WhatsApp higher than SpaceX. The algorithm's implementation is correct. The problem is, we're using a wrong algorithm - a system that begins to increasingly value wrong things.
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Yeah, imagine investing in things like... the first electricity service provider, or the first telephone, or the first TV. All of those things are multi-billion dollar industries. I'm sure this entire exchange has been played out before for other emergent industries!
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SpaceX comes with, well, an astronomical (snicker) level of risk attached to it. So I suppose the idea is that SpaceX might well end up being worth a lot more than WhatsApp, but WhatsApp and its user base are worth a lot now. It is also unlikely that they will end up not being worth anything in the future (if we hit a second dotcom bubble WhatsApp might end up being worth a lot less than their current valuation, but like AOL, it won't be literally worth nothing). SpaceX might.
There is also some level of tragedy of the commons problem going on, in which SpaceX benefits all of us every time they successfully test a new design, but it only benefits their investors when they manage to get mining rights to the moon or set up martian tourism or the like. Goals which are possible - which is the impressive thing - but still very risky bets.
> when they manage to get mining rights to the moon or set up martian tourism or the like
I always wonder if people actually seriously believe this.
We are many, many decades away from this being even close to a reality.
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I'm amazed SpaceX is valued so highly.
SpaceX is in an industry with better financed/politically connected companies and an unpredictable revenue stream. It's a risky business by every definition. WhatsApp by comparison is a stable, very popular, growing and strategically important messaging platform.
And if you think that human-human communication is less valuable than putting a few satellites in space (NASA/ESA/ISRO/etc are the real keys to future space exploration) then I would argue your priorities are a bit warped.
WhatsApp by comparison is a stable, very popular, growing and strategically important messaging platform.
I'd rather phrase that as "WhatsApp by comparison is a currently stable, currently popular and growing generic platform implementable and implemented by thousands of companies and hobbyyists worldwide with nothing unique about the company except the current user-base, a (mostly free-loading) user-base which has shown great willingness to flock to the next great thing should this service ever do the wrong moves".
You know... The sort of statement you don't make about 20 billion dollar companies. They should have a more solid footing than being trendy right now. To put it in the dryset terms possible: They have no unique value-proposition.
SpaceX is doing real shit which might make an impact on the future of mankind. To me just comparing them in the same context seems offensive.
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WhatsApp (and similar) will never make any of the invested money back though. Its value is purely in chance that it will grow and someone else will buy you out in a few months or years. Its only valuable asset are users, and they will be gone. So someone at the end of long chain on of rich people will weep.
With SpaceX, there is enormous value in the company as it is, even if it went bankrupt tomorrow.
> (NASA/ESA/ISRO/etc are the real keys to future space exploration)
Now are they? NASA itself now outsourcing its LEO capacity to SpaceX. And SpaceX is much more focused than government agencies thanks to virtue of having a single leader with an idea, as opposed to bureaucracy and CYA-ism. Of course, space exploration is not a one-man endeavour, but I wouldn't dismiss the impact SpaceX already has and likely will have in the future - they're empowering those big space agencies.
>And if you think that human-human communication is less valuable than putting a few satellites in space (NASA/ESA/ISRO/etc are the real keys to future space exploration) then I would argue your priorities are a bit warped.
that is exactly bifurcation point each technological civilization faces (be it whole human race today or China 600 years ago) - to "go in", i.e. collapse into something like ant-colony or to "go out", i.e. explore and expand.
I'm surprised it is the top comment. If I remember correctly, it has been discussed a lot of times on HN. And most of the times, people agreed it wasn't a fair comparison.
WhatsApp has had a real, tangible, positive impact on the lives of hundreds of millions of people.
I think WhatsApp potential value caps out at 50B or so. SpaceX potential value might be in the trillions (low probability). So while their current valuations might seem 'wrong', the long term potential value might be closer to your value judgement. There are very few large investors with a 20 year time horizon. I am not sure if that is a fault of capitalism. I am not sure another system of resource allocation would do better, do you?
This has nothing to do with short term interest based capitalism. Whether privately held, a charity, or any other structure, if what you are making is not of general interest to the population at large, it's going to have a pretty hard time. The only way to fix that is to eliminate free markets and democracy so people of average or less intelligence/foresight have no say in the appropriation of resources.
Value to humanity is not highly correlated to economic value. Value to humanity is but a small, often inconsequential segment of demand.
People will disagree with you on that, but I think such disagreement misses a crucial observation - economic value was highly correlated to the value for humanity. But as we took all the low-hanging fruits we can see those two senses of value increasingly diverge.
Hell, for a simple analogy, it's like with solid rocket boosters - you should appreciate how far they got you, but you definitely don't want to keep being attached to them when they burn out and decide to not go to space.
I think you're confusing "value to humanity" and nerd porn.
SpaceX is the commercialisation of space exploration and that's just how valuation works in commercial applications. It is, however, remiss to value to science and progress in dollar terms. TCP/IP is far more valuable than all of the Internet companies combined but not in dollar terms.
Space transport has always been commercial.
Who do you think designed and built the Saturn V? Redstone? Atlas? Ariane?
Commercial companies making a profit.
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That's similar to saying a toddler is less productive than a recent college graduate.
That is to say: WhatsApp is much further along its individual trajectory than SpaceX is. In decades, the value of SpaceX is likely to eclipse WhatsApp, which in all likelihood won't even exist any longer.
In this analogy you seem to believe the trajectory for this toddler is set in stone. The reality is at it's infancy (which is where Space X is in the grand scheme) it can look very promising but turn out very bad, or a competitor can drastically outpace. Any valuation should discount for the level of risk.
A lot can happen over time. 10 years ago MySpace was by far the dominant social network and Blackberry was the mobile powerhouse. Seemed like neither would fall with so much momentum behind them but we see how that played out.
Valuations are not fixed in time. SpaceX is only starting up. Give it time.
And what value do you place on, say, GNU/copyleft, or HTTP/HTML, or the Fourier transform?
Market capitalization does not indicate importance to the human race, though it's easy to lose sight of that.
> though it's easy to lose sight of that
I think one of the reasons people lose sight of that is because they look back and see all those products, all that improvement in quality of life that capitalism brought us. Those things are undeniable. But one can't infer from this that the system will forever be awesome. It was aligned with human goals initially, but as time goes by, it's less and less aligned.
My guess is that a part of the issue is that VCs can understand WhatsApp. They feel like that can assess it's worth, associated risk, and come up with a valuation independently.
With science based startups the partner at a VC can't easily make an independent assessment. They have to rely on specialists to do tech D&D and they rarely trust them completely. So they shy away from those deals, or they factor the risk into their valuations.
This behavior somewhat ironically can make these investments higher risk. There is a degree to which fund raising at a lower level makes a company a higher risk, because they have less money to work with and can't afford to make mistakes. (the converse is also somewhat true).
Perhaps it's partly because space is seen as higher-risk than social media? The valuation would then be lower because people lower their expectations based on the risk of failure.
>post-oligarchic
Post?
SpaceX could be higher long term.
Having just finished watching The Men Who Built America[1], Musk reminds me so much of the great American entrepreneurs of the last 200 years (Vanderbilt, Rockefeller, Morgan, Ford, Carnegie). Ridiculously ambitious and fearless entrepreneurs who literally by sheer force of will moved humanity forward.
[1]http://www.history.com/shows/men-who-built-america (available on Netflix)
It's definitely possible, but he's not in that category yet IMO. If Tesla actually makes a car that middle class Americans want and can afford, then he can seriously disrupt the motor industry and be on par with those guys. At this point though, Tesla could go out of business and it would just be a footnote in automotive history 30 years from now. SpaceX is similar at this point, it's on the path to something great, but right now its just an early competitor in the private space industry.
Quite an illustrious group: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robber_baron_(industrialist)
Just pointing out some people have a VERY different opinion of those rich men.
The origin of the term is quite interesting. From the wiki link:
The term robber baron derives from the medieval German lords who charged nominally illegal tolls (tolls unauthorized by the Holy Roman Emperor) on the primitive roads crossing their lands or the larger tolls on ships traversing the Rhine—all such actions without adding anything of value,(see robber baron) but instead lining one's pockets to the detriment (added costs) of the common good.
I've been wondering if part of this SpaceX satellite gambit is to help Tesla Motors. Think about it: if and when there are 500,000 or a million or several million Tesla vehicles (including the Model 3) all over the world, plus thousands of SuperChargers, and they all need to be connected to the Net for messaging and value-added services, then what better way than to just have 'em connect to the SpaceX service?
Right now Tesla Model S vehicles connect via AT&T (at least in the US, don't know what the carriers are in other countries). It's a tiny number of "devices" connected to the network so it is probably expensive for Tesla. At some point it gets really expensive. One assumes the Model 3 will have the same always-on connection that the Model S/X has. Millions of Models S/X/3 around the world mean a lot of communications costs. And then there are the SuperChargers, that will in time no doubt be communicating with cars too, to improve the user experience.
I suspect a few million "devices" connected to the SpaceX version of global wifi would be way cheaper than connecting to a dozen or two carriers in countries around the world.
Just a theory.
You're overestimating the cell connectivity costs. Amazon Kindle is permanently on 3g/4g, and the device itself costs less than $200.
The early models even had free unlimited worldwide 3g connectivity. Which of course was too expensive for such a cheap device, but shows that offering car connectivity really can't be so costly.
The content isn't that large, and I believe it was only free with the Keyboard version.
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SpaceX is currently charging $61 million per launch. [1] That's a lot of AT&T cell coverage.
[1] http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities
If there are going to be thousands of Tesla cars in each city, maybe it would make more sense for them to create a mesh network and connect to the internet via Wi-Fi when parked (at Superchargers, at home, etc.). This could drastically reduce the cellular bandwidth required for less than the hundreds of millions of dollars required for a satellite solution.
Yeah I thought about that too. Would be very useful in remote areas. Probably won't work with the current batch of cars however.
With that said, telsa promised 3g free with the model s for another 4 years. Maybe timing with the satellites?
I think it is a lot more about providing communications to mars. They are basically doing a/b testing on earth for blanketing a planet in communication. Also, they could connect that network to mars to have interplanetary communication over something that resembles the internet. Tesla can lease bandwith (or have their users lease bandwith) much easier and cheaper than launching a fully fledged system like this
How is this a/b testing?
Well, this is not exactly A/B testing (maybe a pilot program would be a better term), but as for the rest of your comment - I recall Musk saying something about Mars lacking Internet and him wanting to put it there.
or even delivering power wirelessly to the tesla cars!!!
that would be the ultimate end game move by Musk.
Another one not behind paywall: http://gizmodo.com/report-googles-finalizing-a-1-billion-inv...
Makes me wish average joe could buy spacex stock. Willing investors shouldnt have to be elite or accredited. Just believers and supporters of a better future.
Most companies that raise money by other means than publicly trading stock frankly don't want the head ache of dealing with shareholders.
A company like SpaceX can raise all the money they need from a small number of like minded investors. It saves them the hassle of dealing with thousands of shareholders with their own risk tolerances, investment goals, etc.
And once you exceed a certain number of shareholders, you are subject to nearly the same reporting requirement as a publicly traded company anyway, so you get the downsides without the upsides.
That's all well-and-good for SpaceX but it proved to be pretty catastrophic for the dozens of pump-and-dumps that bankrupted many Americans when we tried that previously.
We don't use legal mechanisms to protect citizens from an endless myriad of things, many which are much more dangerous than investing in private startups. This is really a way to keep the proles out of the good investments. It's infuriating and unjust that the wealthy have more rights.
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Certainly there's that risk. But saying that only millionaire's are 'smart enough' to invest in private companies seems worse.
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So has putting it all on black in Vegas, alcohol, and any other number of statistically proven vices. At least investment has some measure of upside. But yeah, I'd like the $n trillion in debt government tell me how to manage my money.
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Sounds good in theory, but nowadays what happens is companies go public when they are fully valued, making them ripe for collapse when insiders take advantage of the liquidity to exit positions. When companies go public early, opportunities are created for retail investors to make huge money (AOL, Dell, Amazon, Walmart to name a few examples). Now it's like, you get to buy at the very top and it's for your own good. horaaaaay
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You can buy Google as a proxy. A poor proxy but proxy nonetheless. The "plus" side is Google might make similar investments in other ventures like this so your bet on space is more diversified.
Tesla would be a more direct proxy surely. (A $1B investment is about 0.3% of Google's total value.)
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I wouldn't be surprised to see SpaceX do an IPO in the future. I'll definitely buy in even if I would do that as a kind of kick-starter rather than for the potential return.
I am not surprised. In one of the Ted Talks, Larry Page had clearly mentioned that he would rather leave all his money to someone like Elon Musk than donating to a Charity. He is going down that path.
I think this is a great move by Google.
Source: http://www.ted.com/talks/larry_page_where_s_google_going_nex...
If I were him, I would put most of my money in life extension technology.
I guess that's why he founded Calico (http://www.calicolabs.com/)
Bill Gates is working on that. He said in his AMA that one of his goal is to slow down aging.
And here it ain't even his own money. Even better for him.
We (edit: briefly) changed the url from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8919901 is a reasonable article and not behind a paywall, so it may as well be the one.
Can someone with some experience in satellites tell us what is possible in terms of satellite internet. For example, I really doubt most individual people would be able to actually connect directly through satellites. If that is the case, a satellite radio would have to detect and distinguish millions of different simultaneous data streams. I doubt there is enough spectrum for this.
I'm only familiar with the basics of the networks capabilities per my former position as a technician for WildBlue/Exede. Connecting directly through satellite is certainly possible if more people were interested in it. Our satellite networks are still fairly basic primarily because there's not been a historical abundance of interest in the technology due to its limitations compared to terrestrial networking.
ViaSat-1 is (as far as I'm aware) the most capable satellite currently in orbit, with a rate of 140 Gbit/s. Its bandwidth capacity when launched larger than all of the other North American satellites combined.
I would be VERY surprised to learn that the fundamental issue with this would be spectrum capacity, as the K band satellites operate in is very wide.
The way current satellite technologies typically deal with concurrent data streams is to split up into 'beams' that cover a specific region. Currently VS1 uses 72 bands but they're spread all over Canada and the US. With more satellites and tighter beam placement it's certainly feasible to have millions of simultaneous connections.
I feel like I kind of rambled on there - if there's anything in particular you'd like me to expand upon I'd be happy to (and if someone notices I'm wrong about anything please let me know!).
> if there's anything in particular you'd like me to expand upon I'd be happy to
Since you asked :)
How much of this is relying on phased array antennae on the satellite and does that mean you won't have to aim a dish or will the downlink for residential require a tracking antenna or do those also work using phased arrays these days?
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HughesNet has 600,000-some subscribers. WildBlue has over 300,000. They're satellite ISPs with 12-15mbps residential service.
Back in the 90s I use to install 2 way Earth Stations for Hughes. An Earth station is basically a box that puts TCP/IP over Satellite. They are installed in many gas stations in the US. If you drive down the street and see a white dish on the roof, chances are my company did the install ;) These links handle credit card transactions for paying at the pump and they also handle lottery purchases.
The industry wasn't regulated very much until a situation in which some installers aiming dishes for EDJ (Edward Jones Financials) were knock things off line by aiming dishes at wrong satellites. I don't know much about how the technology works but it became apparent that aiming a dish at the wrong "bird" as we call them could interfere with others.
The EDJ thing was big news back in the day although a google search turns up nothing. It reportedly knocked Edward Jones off line for something close to a week while many were deployed to go and re-aim satellite dishes.
After this incident, the FCC got more involved and now to install a two way satellite dish, you have to take a course and pass it. My whole team was required to go through this training.
We also installed 2 way satellite internet for a company out of Canada that had a PCI card you plugged into your PC. The PCI card would then connect to the dish transmitter and LNB. The down speed was around 4-5Mb/s while the up speed was very slow at around 128Kb/s. I forget the name of the company but they had a proprietary driver for the PCI card that compressed the TCP packets in order to deal with the huge latency of traveling up to space and back down. They also had patents on a modified TCP/IP stack whereby they could locally ACK outbound TCP packets to improve throughput (as it was explained to me at the time).
In the past such services have used geosynchronous satellites, at least far as I am aware. The problem with that is the great height of the satellites means a pretty serious lag. IIRC, about 250 ms, round trip. LEO satellites, however, would have a tiny amount of lag added.
Yeah, but can Hughes handle it if all 600 000 came from a small area? Or do they rely on people to be relatively dispersed?
Generally satellite ISPs are dial-up for upload and use the satellite link only for download.
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I'm optimistic about satellite internet done right, but I'm worried the speeds and lag are going to make it a bit frustrating compared to fiber. In 5 years (when this will be completed), I think virtual reality will be penetrating the masses. Can satellite internet handle virtual meetings, virtual online gaming, etc without major lagging?
These are going to be LEO satellites (no higher than a few hundred km), instead of GEO satellites, which would make the lower bound of the latency pretty low (comparable to cable or DSL).
This helped me visualize how close LEO satellites are, as well as how far away others are (e.g. GPS).
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/82/Orbitalal...
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The alternative to the market served by satellite Internet isn't fiber, it's nothing (or in some cases, cell towers). To address your point: The satellite network would almost certainly be in LEO. There's no fundamental reason why LEO satellites should have high latency. They're only a few hundred kilometers out, so round trip times are measured in single digit milliseconds. GEO sats have latency (and bandwidth) issues due to their distance from the surface.
I suspect the initial use case is low bandwidth protocols (email, IM, notifications etc) that don't mind high latency rather than "high" bandwidth stuff (browsing, streaming video etc).
It's certainly better than the alternative in some places, which is zero internet. Look at how widespread "dumb phone" use is throughout Africa. Some incredible and empowering things can happen when unprivileged folks are given what we might consider outdated technologies.
There's probably no reason this can't act as another competitor to fixed broadband in the US market, bypassing one of the major issues holding back greater competition in that market. Especially if SpaceX can get the launches down to a cheap enough point. And it should certainly be capable of acting as a competitor to 4G LTE and the next generation.
How much data could these push in theory?
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What I'm wondering is how are they going to offer it to the people. Pay per minute? Pay for what you use?
No technological innovation can change basic physics. There will always be propagation delay in satellite networks.
Low Earth orbit is 1.3 light-milliseconds away from earth. My home router is 30-100 packet-milliseconds away from my laptop.
... But there's dramatically less when you put the satellites much closer to earth, as they're planning to do here. These are LEO satellites, not the far-away geostationary stuff you see with older communication satellites.
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It says Google inc - do they mean through Google Ventures or something different?
Google Ventures' budget is reportedly nearer $300-$500M/year so I would imagine this is something different. There were rumblings of Satellite internet coming out of GoogleX but this seems to fit with their new Energy / Access group (Where Project Loon ended up) too. So my answer is that it definitely won't maybe end up in Google Ventures.
Google Inc. does direct investments from time to time. Also they have their growth investment arm, Google Capital, which has invested some large sums recently in Glassdoor, etc. (but surely not $1B in one company unless they acquired that company). Perhaps Google Inc. is leading the investment with the round consisting of many undisclosed players across private equity, etc.
That's effectively and end-run around the whole net-neutrality debate.
I'm glad that net neutrality limbo doesn't actually hurt investment in infrastructure!
Musk said the Internet access would be "unfettered certainly and at very low cost". https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/531996243904716800
Hopefully there's a way around needing a satellite dish, aside from dishes that share their connection over wi-fi.
I've put up some thoughts on this and Google/SpaceX' wider rationale and would love the HN community's thoughts: https://medium.com/@pmurphyirl/why-is-satellite-internet-hot...
What are the main target markets of this investment? Africa and Southeastern Asia?
Yes, and all Comcast sufferers in the US.
Considering satellites at that altitude and quantity would be ideal for cell handsets. I would be surprised if Apple wasn't trying to get a piece of this action as well.
Spectrum rights came up in the announcement video for the opening of the Space X satellite branch. The response was that spectrum to satellite is not scarce as long as roof penetration isn't required. Handset to satellite would work against that unless it did some sort of voip satellite/wifi handoff.
Yea, looking at the announcement they are talking about something partially optically based. I guess we will see what they can pull off. Optical seems like a difficult choice for anything that moves though.
EDIT:
Even if he wanted to, Cook doesn't have enough power at Apple, practically, to be actually in a position to do that yet.
I mean clout. He literally can't personally decide to do that (yet) and just do it.
The Apple watch is the first category or undertaking of a similar size and novelty, and has yet to be accepted or succeed. (It will.)
My comment is being misinterpreted so I've clarified above. My comment isn't about what Apple can 'afford to do' it's about what Tim Cook can 'afford to do' (politically and in terms of consequences.)
$150 billion in cash says otherwise.
Apple could step in at $1.5 or $2 billion, at twice the valuation, and the deal would be theirs most likely.
If not, then for the same price tag, they could just launch their own network.
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Tim Cook in case you forgot is the CEO of Apple and has been instrumental in its success. He is also ridiculously well respected within Apple. Not sure what more he could do.
That said he isn't stupid enough to invest in something like this. Apple doesn't benefit all that much from having more people on the internet. Google does.
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Spectrum that can penetrate walls/homes is very scarce so that won't happen. It appears these sats will be for lasercom and home internet (requiring a dish/antenna).
What frequencies would this be at? Couldn't the govt restrict this frequency like they do today and auction it off?
With LEO satellite internet, would download/upload speeds be symmetric (like SDSL) or would uploading be much slower (like ADSL)?
You could do it either way, but probably asymmetric due to usage patterns.
I use Iridium a lot, and you need a clear view of the sky. Would it work indoors? Otherwise it'd be a very serious limitation.
Cable and DSL also have an 'outdoors' component, adding an external antenna for either improved bandwidth or to get the thing to work at all should be an option for a new broadband medium.
And when you're on the move that doesn't matter. One way to make it work untethered indoors is to simply bridge the satellite downlink box to a wifi repeater. That would get you coverage indoors and outdoors from regular devices around your house, and if they sell enough of these downlink boxes they could conceivably pool the bandwidth by creating a mesh of them.
All kinds of interesting options, even if it doesn't work directly indoors.
Could anybody give me a solid reason why would Google invest in SpaceX?
In general, because they're awesome. In particular, because Google also wanted to be in global-internet-coverage business (see e.g. Project Loon).
I don't see why something with a log-in restriction should be in the top posts..
I don't see why it shouldn't. This has been the case pretty much every day for a long time so clearly it isn't against the rules. I agree that it isn't ideal but it's better to link to a good source than to find a poorly written article that is free to access.
Might want to search HN for wsj.com. This is a daily occurence.
via Google: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd...
Gosh. Would it be illegal for HN to do this automatically?
Just use https://paywallbypass.org/ which works like this: http://paywallbypass.org/?q=http://www.wsj.com/articles/goog...
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Why not? It's a publicly available link.
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I love that this link is here, IANAL, but I'm curious: would pasting this link here violate the CFAA or Web Entertainment Theft Bill since it's bypassing a paywall? Would it count as a misdemeanor in that case to actually follow the link?
The paywall allows users of Google to view the article. By clicking the link, you are using Google. It seems like everyone is in accord here.
If the site wants to change their paywall to block Google users, they should go ahead and do that.
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I'm pretty sure this wouldn't violate Tennessee's WETB.
There's no subscription account involved and being shared, a requirement.
Stupid website asks to subscribe or login to read every time. Can't read it.
Here, have a bookmarklet:
`javascript:document.location.href='https://paywallbypass.org/?q='+document.location.href;`
Google Nears $1 Billion Investment in SpaceX Infusion Would Back Push to Provide Internet Access Via Satellites SpaceX delivered cargo to the international space station last week. SpaceX delivered cargo to the international space station last week. NASA/REUTERS By ROLFE WINKLER, EVELYN RUSLI and ANDY PASZTOR Jan. 19, 2015 5:30 p.m. ET
Google Inc. is close to investing roughly $1 billion in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. to support its nascent efforts to deliver Internet access via satellites, according to a person familiar with the matter. The investment would value SpaceX, backed by Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk , at more than $10 billion, according to this person. It isn’t clear what exact stake Google could end up with in the fast-growing space company. If Google completes the deal, it would be the Internet company’s latest effort to use futuristic technology to spread Internet access to remote regions of the world, alongside high-altitude balloons and solar-powered drones. By extending Web access, Google increases the number of people who can use its services. Spokesmen for Google and SpaceX declined to comment. News of Google’s potential investment was reported by tech blog The Information. Google has been considering satellite-based Internet service for more than a year. In late 2013, it hired satellite-industry veteran Greg Wyler, who at one point last year had more than 10 people working for him. Mr. Wyler left Google last summer and is now developing his own satellite-Internet venture. SpaceX builds and launches rockets and spacecraft. Mr. Musk last week described a general concept for SpaceX to launch hundreds of satellites into relatively low orbit to deliver Internet access across the globe. Mr. Musk told BusinessWeek the project could cost $10 billion to build and take at least five years, but gave no details about funding or manufacturing plans. For several months Mr. Musk has been mulling ways to expand SpaceX’s rocket-and-spacecraft manufacturing operations to designing and building satellites, according to aerospace-industry officials who have talked with him. Though short on specifics, his latest comments were the clearest sign yet of a long-term commitment to such expansion plans. It is likely to take years to establish designs and potentially set up a specialized satellite-making facility. But SpaceX already has some important building blocks. Industry officials said the company builds its own navigation and flight-control systems for spacecraft, which could provide some elements for satellites. There also are synergies between parts SpaceX makes today for solar arrays on spacecraft and such devices intended for satellites. One big technical and financial challenge facing the proposed venture is the cost installing ground-based antennas and computer terminals to receive the satellite signals. That issue has bedeviled some earlier Internet-via-satellite projects and threatens to complicate Google’s efforts, satellite industry officials and consultants say. Another unanswered question is how SpaceX plans to transmit Internet signals to Earth. The company isn’t believed to control rights to radio spectrum. Mr. Musk has discussed using optical-laser technology in his satellites, according to a person familiar with the matter. That technology works by beaming information from satellites in space. But lasers wouldn’t be a reliable way to deliver Internet service to Earth because, unlike radio waves, they don’t easily pass through clouds. The talks are somewhat unusual for Mr. Musk, who has resisted most outside investments that could reduce even slightly his control over SpaceX. Industry officials said if problems arise, SpaceX might need additional capital in the next few years to fund new rocket development and more launches. It isn’t clear what terms are under discussion. The Wall Street Journal reported Mr. Musk’s interest in satellite-Internet service in November, saying he was talking with Mr. Wyler. Mr. Wyler last week said his new venture, OneWeb Ltd., had secured funding from Richard Branson ’s Virgin Group and chip company Qualcomm Inc. Mr. Wyler said he hopes to provide Internet service from a constellation of 648 satellites in low-Earth orbit, using a large block of radio spectrum he controls. Mr. Wyler estimated the plan would cost as much as $2 billion. Messrs. Musk and Wyler stopped working together because of disagreements over control of any joint project, according to a person familiar with their discussions.
In case of WSJ, search for the article on Google.
fwiw, in case of Quora, add `?share=1` at the end of the URL.
spacex has former @o3b CEO and former @iDirect CTO. They show their ambitions about advancing to satellite field.
It would be awesome to have commercial flights to space in our lifetime!
I like the way they've written this article as if it's an extended tweet. Short and to the point.
> 648 satellites in low-Earth orbit
Something tells me this might be a little problematic in the future.
Are you concerned about overcrowding? I don't know if that number is that big a problem.
For example, there are literally thousands of airplanes flying in the US airspace at any time. Now look up and see if you can spot one.
There's a lot of empty space up there. Even more so 200 miles up.
Why?
I would imagine he means trying to navigate the debris when sending other stuff into orbit, or bringing spacecraft home. I've often wondered this myself... at some point do we have so much stuff up there it's near-impossible to get spacecraft out without serious danger to their crews? And what about when it's time to retire them?
Legitimate question.
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I'm guessing they are referring to real-estate capacity. Not including space junk there are about 2,300 satellites in orbit. This is quite a proportional increase and the risk of collision with junk will go up.
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dunno. orbital debris?
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Google will now compete with NASA? I kind of wishes SpaceX would stay independent!